The race for artificial intelligence is reshaping the entire technology landscape. Cross-shareholdings, surging investment in data centres and the risk of cascading failures are transforming the ecosystem at high speed. According to Christophe Pouchoy, Global Equity Tech & Thematic Fund Manager at La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE), “the restructuring is already under way and it is likely to affect several companies”.
The AI revolution is playing out less in Silicon Valley meeting rooms than in the background: supply chains, industrial contracts and massive infrastructure. The AI market could reach 1,810 billion dollars by 2030 according to a GrandViewResearch study published in April 2025. This exceptional growth is redefining competitive dynamics.
OpenAI, AMD, Broadcom: The New Diplomacy of Silicon
What surprises analysts today is not the power of AI models but the financial alliances that underpin them. OpenAI, facing surging compute demand, has embarked on a new strategy that involves negotiating hardware contracts in exchange for equity stakes in its suppliers.
“If OpenAI signs a major contract with AMD or Broadcom, its valuation will rise. By requesting shares, OpenAI captures part of this value in return for its chip purchases”, explains Pouchoy.
Amazon pioneered this logic in logistics a decade ago. AI is now replicating it at massive scale.
But this is not only an offensive strategy. Suppliers are also seeking to lock in relationships with the dominant AI players. “NVIDIA, in our view, has no interest in seeing OpenAI shift to Broadcom. Taking a stake is also a defensive move that helps preserve a strategic relationship”, the manager notes.
Data Centres: A Debt Bubble in the Making?
Behind this battle lies another sector under acute strain: data-centre construction. In 2025, global spending is expected to exceed 250 billion dollars, driven by demand for model training and cloud services.
Yet a worrying share of these investments is being made by highly fragile players. “The companies that present the greatest risk are those borrowing 5, 10 or 15 billion a year to build data centres while generating almost no revenue today”, insists Pouchoy.
These firms, often backed by private equity, are relying on future contracts with Microsoft, Google or Oracle to become profitable. The arrangements are frequently off-balance-sheet for the tech giants, allowing them to limit their own risk. For the operators, the stakes are existential even if they highlight the prospect of rapid returns.
“There is a real risk of bankruptcies when contracts come up for renewal if demand does not materialise. In some cases hyperscalers might take over certain assets, but the entire intermediary ecosystem would be affected.”
A Rapid and Severe Reconfiguration
The pressure is unlikely to ease. More compact AI models are accelerating the rise of intelligent robotics including robotaxis, humanoids and autonomous machines, a trend already visible in the United States. At the same time, software applications are booming with copilots, autonomous agents and service automation gaining traction.
“The wave of AI applications is only beginning. After the build-out of AI infrastructure, software will capture most of the value”, Pouchoy notes.
In this environment, he warns that investors must scrutinise dependencies and read the early signals. Capital alliances, debt levels and contractual commitments are becoming as important as technological performance itself.
“The current balance is not sustainable. The next phase of AI will leave some players behind but will also bring forward strong and durable leaders.”
Disclaimer
The data and opinions expressed by LFDE, along with any securities or sectors mentioned, are provided for information only and do not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security, investment advice or financial analysis. Their inclusion in managed portfolios, as well as their performance, cannot be guaranteed.
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