In a financial universe saturated with data, Varenne Capital Partners relies on behavioural analysis to identify unique investment opportunities. By scrutinising transactions made by executives and board members, the team anticipates market movements before they become visible to everyone. We meet with David Mellul and Mustapha Mamache, who reveal the inner workings of this approach.
At Varenne Capital Partners, the origination of investment ideas is built on two complementary pillars: fundamental analysis and behavioural analysis. “We look at insiders – executives or significant shareholders who must publicly disclose their share purchases and sales. This information is public, but it can reveal a view that the market has not yet priced in,” explains David Mellul, Managing Director and Managing Partner.
The idea is simple: some insiders have a genuine investor instinct. When a Chief Medical Officer buys a large amount of shares in a biotech company, he may be anticipating a promising treatment that the market will only discover later. The objective is not to obtain any illegal privileged information, but to detect significant and unusual signals – the “right horses” to follow.
Mustapha Mamache, Head of Origination and of the analysis of publicly disclosed executive activity, elaborates: “We analyse purchases and sales in their context. A single purchase may be insignificant, but when several executives buy simultaneously, it draws attention. We look for behaviours that stand out and cross-check them with fundamental analysis.”
The example of ASML illustrates this approach: four insiders bought shares at the same time for more than €1.4 million. Three executives and one board member. “It was the first time in years that they bought at that particular moment,” notes Mustapha Mamache. The timing was crucial: at the end of September 2025, in a context of Sino-American trade tensions, these purchases enabled Varenne to enter at €680, with the price later rising to €900.
Beyond origination, this approach also supports risk management. “Every company in the portfolio is monitored through these signals. When the management team sells heavily, it triggers an in-depth analysis to anticipate downside risks,” explains David Mellul. Historic sales at Mutability allowed the team to position itself before the market reacted.
The methodology is based on clear principles: filtering significant transactions, setting threshold amounts, and cross-checking with fundamental analysis. “The added value comes from our interpretation platform, not just from the data. The same information is accessible to others, but we analyse it differently and systematically,” adds Mustapha Mamache.
By combining behavioural observation, fundamental analysis and data automation, Varenne Capital Partners identifies opportunities that traditional research might overlook. “Behavioural origination allows us to detect moments when management acts in an atypical way. These signals provide a valuable tempo, sometimes revealing a step ahead of the market,” concludes David Mellul.
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