You’ve asked it. In meetings, in hallways, after promotions that made no sense. Why is this person in that role? You saw the confidence. The polished pitch. The certainty. But you also saw the gaps. And you said nothing.
The truth is uncomfortable. If we keep mistaking confidence for competence, we’ll keep choosing the wrong people to lead. And the cost is real.
In early 2025, 222 US CEOs stepped down, a 14 percent spike. One in five were replaced by interim leaders. That’s not disruption. That’s failure in selection. A system that rewards performance over principle, presence over judgment.
“We protect the people we know, even when we know they are not right for the role”
And yes, this matters in Luxembourg. Here, leadership decisions are rarely made through transparent processes. They happen through relationships. Through familiarity. Through trust built over time but not always earned through results. We often prefer what feels safe over what drives change. We defend connections more than consequences. We protect the people we know, even when we know they are not right for the role.
Meanwhile, real leaders get overlooked. The ones who listen, who challenge, who decide with care. But they don’t get the spotlight, because they don’t fit the image. And we confuse that image with effectiveness.
The 2025 Childhood Leadership Study showed that 96% of children chose the loudest classmate as the leader. That instinct never left us. It just wears nicer shoes now.
As Stanford’s Charles O’Reilly put it: “We celebrate the 10% of self-promoters who succeed and call them visionaries. The 90% who fail? We ignore them.” And while we ignore them, we let the wrong people lead and the right people leave.
So what can you do?
Stop looking away. Start asking better questions.
Not “Who fits the culture?” but “Who transforms it?”
Not “Do they look like a leader?” but “Have they shown they are one?”
Not “Do I like them?” but “Do they make better decisions than I do?”
Leadership is not about how you perform. It’s about what you leave behind. Management is doing things right. Leadership is doing the right things. If we keep selecting managers who perform leadership, we will keep getting exactly what we deserve: more of the same.
Bias is human. But unchecked, it becomes structural. AI can help us see what our instincts often ignore. It doesn’t judge. It shows. And that is exactly what real leadership demands.
Leadership begins the moment you choose to question the way we choose.
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